Election Predictions
Elections are upon us. What are your predictions for the results?
Here are mine:
Senate: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Missouri swing to the Blue, for a pickup of four seats. This would make it a 51-49 result with the Republicans controlling.
House: The Democrats gain 22 seats, taking control of the House. After the Elections cool down, three Republicans announce that they will switch to the Democratic party, for a pickup of 25 seats overall. However, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs manages to win as a write in candidate (wouldn't that be something?) for Tom DeLay's seat. This would result in a 225-204 majority
Governors: Arnold is reelected in California. In Texas, Perry goes into a runoff, which he will eventually win. Ken Blackwell wins in Ohio, setting up a major showdown in 2008's Presidential election.
Aftermath: The DNC hails the election as a major victory for the Democratic party and says that it is the equivilent of a referendum on the war. Meanwhile, the Republicans point out that they actually lost less seats than the historic average that the party in power loses in midterm elections, and therefore it is really no big deal.
posted by jagular @ 8:35 PM
7 Comments:
And just to let you know, the overall average of the major polls that are done predicts the following:
House: 226-204 with the Dems controlling the house.
Senate: 50-50 Split, with Dick Cheney controlling the Senate.
Damn, just the thought of Dead-eye Dick controlling anything scares me :p
I feel the Dem's will make inroads in the Senate and it will be basically an even split, but no outright majority for them. The House races I was watching tonight, have gotten closer in the last few days, even that will be hard to call at this point. I am a gambler, but not when it comes to politics. Incumbents win too damn many times for my taste. I think in the close states, the propositions will make the difference, like Missouri and the Stem Cell proposition.
Of course Ahnold is going to win. Sadly for me, thats a given. With our state legislature in the hands of the Dem's, it will be a catfight once again to get anything done. In TX I think Perry will be re-elected. Howard Dean was on "Countdown" tonight and he didn't sound real sure of anything...but thats the Dem's for you..snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.(a bad joke)
The fact is, without a clear majority in the House, the Dem's will not affect change on anything and we have two more years of Bush. I would like to see some changes in how lobbyists can do "business" with our elected officials and more transparency on where our money goes and how it is spent. I want Stem Cell research to be able to move ahead..lives depend on it in my opinion, but I guess it is going to have to be done on a state by state level. I want less government intrusion into our lives, so they need give up their gay marriage phobia and let the states settle it one by one..which most are doing anyway. If more rightwing preachers get busted for being hypocrites, perhaps the religious right will lose it luster and quit trying to jam their morality down everyone's throat.
I hope the South Dakotans toss out their abortion law and leave it to the people who are affected to make their own choices on this issue. Being pro-choice doesn't mean you are pro-abortion..it means you want people to have the option..its not a black and white issue as witnessed by a couple that had to travel all the way to friggin Cinncy to save one of their twins because they were developing in a way that would of killed both of them.
Bet you wished you hadn't told me about your post now huh?
Thanks for getting out the vote Jag..I salute you for it :)
Excellent comment.
I have been keeping a close eye on a lot of different races, and I think you are right on the house race. The Senate wont matter a whole lot either way that it goes, because neither party will have a clear enough majority to actually pass anything.
The House, on the other hand controlls the budget.
But if you notice, a lot of the Dems who are ahead are very moderate, and as such there won't be a very liberal influence in the House however it goes.
I don't fear moderates..I embrace them. Its the far right that scares me.
I did answer your question on my blog if you wish to happen by and read it..
I don't like politics. And I can't wait to see if AHNULD gets back in office for another term!
Ken has it right, but I do think that either MT or VA will go blue.
I'm hearing that ohio will go all blue, but to be honest I don't know much about that state's politics this year beyond the senate seat.
Well, in Ohio, Ken Blackwell was secretary of state during the 04 presidential election, so it was him that certified the electoral vote for the state. Some people have alleged voter fraud in the state, and it was enough for some of the big Dems to target him for defeat.
He took a liking to the publicity he got and decided to run for Governor, stating that if he were governor he could very much help the Republican party deliver the Ohio vote in the future, based on the fact that a large percentage of the Democratic vote in Ohio is from black constituents. (Ken Blackwell is a black man, so he feels he can influence the black votors to vote Red)
It's just another high profile race to watch, IMHO.
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